2012 Awards discussion

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thelostboy/archives/if_there_were_oscars_for_the_first_half_of_the_year/

If There Were Oscars For The First Half of The Year…

Here’s a fun little fantasy game (at least if you’re an Oscar geek): Predicting the non-existent mid-year Oscars, which would only nominate films that were released through June 30th (note: these are not personal preferences, but only what I’d imagine Oscar would pick if this somehow magically existed).

Best Picture:
Beginners
Hanna
Jane Eyre
Midnight in Paris
Rango
Super 8
The Tree of Life
Win Win

-the rest after the jump-

Best Director:
J.J. Abrams, Super 8
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Cary Fukunaga, Jane Eyre
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Joe Wright, Hanna

Best Actor:
Rob Brydon, The Trip
Steve Coogan, The Trip
Paul Giamatti, Win Win
Ewan McGregor, Beginners
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

Best Actress:
Juliette Binoche, Certified Copy
Saoirse Ronan, Hanna
Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre
Kristin Wiig, Bridesmaids
Robin Wright, The Conspirator

Best Supporting Actor:
Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre
Bruce Greenwood, Meek’s Cutoff
Hunter McCracken, The Tree of Life
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
Melanie Laurent, Beginners
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Amy Ryan, Win Win

Best Original Screenplay:
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Rango
Win Win

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Cars 2
Jane Eyre
The Trip
Water For Elephants
X-Men: First Class

thelostboy posted to Awards Season at 5:23 pm on June 29, 2011

http://www.filmmisery.com/?p=7585

OSCAR TRACKER: Best Actor and Actress Predictions 2012

Wednesday, June 29, 2011 3 Comments
Share
0digg

According to the official countdown at The Film Experience we are 209 days away from the announcement of the Academy Award nominations. There are six months left in the 2011 cinematic season and chances are very good that none of the Oscar nominated performances have been seen yet. Last year only three of the ten Best Actor and Actress nominations came from movies that were released before July 1st, and in 2009 it was only one of the ten.

If you have taken a look at last week’s Oscar predictions, you will notice that only two of the top ten Best Actor potentials is from a film that anybody has seen and those are Michael Shannon of Take Shelter and Anton Yelchin of Like Crazy which have only been seen by Sundance audiences. On the Actress side there is Tilda Swinton and Kirsten Dunst who got raves at Cannes for their performances in We Need to Talk About Kevin and Melancholia. However, only Juliette Binoche of Certified Copy makes it into the top ten for a movie that has been released to the public, and that is primarily wishful thinking.

The rest of the actors and actresses that fill out this prediction are pure conjecture. Let’s break them down, shall we?

Best Actor Oscar Predictions 2012

1) Michael Fassbender – A Dangerous Method

If 2011 belongs to any actor, it has to be the remarkably talented Michael Fassbender, who will be seen in six…SIX movies this year. We have already enjoyed him in Jane Eyre and X-Men: First Class and he is slated for Steve McQueen’s Shame and Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire in the second half of the year. However, the one place he is most likely to get recognized by the Academy is his performance as Carl Jung in David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method. Real-life character, period piece, and a layered performance. He does not appear to have any Oscar-baity gimmicks, but if the Academy is paying attention this year they will have to recognize Fassbender.

2) George Clooney – The Descendants

Alexander Payne’s last movie Sideways earned two Oscar nominations for Thomas Hayden Church and Virginia Madsen. Before that his movie About Schmidt earned two nominations for Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates. If there is one thing that Payne has proven effective at, it is getting his performers Oscar nominations. George Clooney is on a similar role with Oscar nominations coming 3 of the last 5 years. This combination should be a no-brainer.

3) Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

This is probably the one that I put down that I am least assured of. DiCaprio is excellent and has been recognized for his collaborations with Scorcese. This is his first time in a Clint Eastwood movie and with a real-life performance of a super-gimmicky character, it should gain the Academy’s attention. However, Eastwood’s last several films have been less embraced by the Academy overall, yet his actors often still score nominations (see Invictus) so that is why this earns a high rank.

4) Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

A lot is riding on the quality of this movie in order to assure anything for Gary Oldman, but if it’s good it will no doubt get the BAFTA bump. This chameleon of an actor is so good that he is hardly noticeable in his films. That sense of restraint is not often something the Academy recognizes, so he may have to add some showiness to gain their attention, but he might have it in this film.

5) Michael Shannon – Take Shelter

This performance has already received all-out raves at the Sundance Film Festival inspiring David Rooney of The Hollywood Reporter to call Shannon the most “mesmerizing American actor working in any medium today.” This performance sounds like the closes thing to a “sure bet” in this category, but who knows if the movie will be embraced as ecstatically when it gets a wide release.

View the Rest of the Best Actor Predictions

Best Actress Oscar Predictions 2012

1) Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Knowing next to nothing about this movie other than the few publicity stills I have seen, I already must say that this looks like a sure thing for Meryl Streep to finally win her third Oscar. Margaret Thatcher is an iconic historical character that had such a unique speaking style and mannerisms that it will be a blast to see where Meryl takes it. If the movie is too on-the-nose, it may negatively affect Streep, but you know no matter what happens she will be great.

2) Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

She was the favorite to win the Best Actress award at the Cannes Film Festival, but lost to Kirsten Dunst. I have a feeling that the Academy will not feel similarly as a smart, but safer movie like We Need to Talk About Kevin seems like it will gain their favor more than anything by Lars Von Trier. Swinton won as recently as four years ago and this film could throw her right back on the Academy’s radar.

3) Charlize Theron – Young Adult

This would be the first nomination that Theron receives when not under heavy make-up (I assume). Along with Alexander Payne, the other working director who has shown a knack for getting his performers nominated is Jason Reitman whose films Up in the Air and Juno scored a combined four performance Oscar nominations. Theron’s role in this film as a divorced writer returning home seems pretty straight-forward, but if the film is well-received she will go far.

4) Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

When it comes to playing real-life characters there is always a risk of taking on a role that is too iconic and it could potentially become cliche. That risk is very much present for Hollywood icon Marilyn Monroe. However, Michelle Williams is one of the most restrained and honest actresses working today and if anybody can escalate this performance to brilliance, it’s Williams.

5) Kirsten Dunst – Melancholia

She has already earned one of the first big awards of the year by taking home the Best Actress prize at the Cannes Film Festival. Only once in the past 20 years has the Cannes Best Actress winner gone on to win the Oscar (Holly Hunter for The Piano) and rarely is that particular actress even nominated. However, if Lars Von Trier’s film is well-received she should receive a lot of the praise.

View the Rest of the Best Actress Predictions

There is a lot of time for these to change and I assure you they will, but until then please share your thoughts on the race.

http://afistfuloffilms.blogspot.com/2011/06/updated-lead-actor-prediction-oscar.html

Monday, June 27, 2011
Updated Lead Actor Prediction (Oscar 2011)
My June predictions are as follows:

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
WHY?:
When you factor in the majors here, it really does look like the planets aligned just right for Leo to FINALLY win what has been alluding him since ’93; the Oscar. He’s considered incredibly overdue, he’s starring in an Eastwood biopic and the buzz surrounding this film is huge. I don’t see him losing this at all. That Oscar may has well have his name etched in it right now.

2) Ryan Gosling/The Ides of March
WHY?:
The snub last year will account for something, and the fact that he is a charismatic actor starring in a political film needing charisma (and the part is said to be baity) will also carry weight. Add to that George Clooney, who is practically worshiped now and you have a very predictable second nomination.

3) Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
WHY?:
He’s Gary Oldman and he hasn’t even been nominated ONCE. I know that he may not be considered overdue by the Academy, but the fans are already making fuss about this being ‘his year’ and the baity project matched with a director I have high hopes for means that I think this COULD be the year he finally gets in, and if he does…he may even be a dark horse for the Oscar, considering his age and prestige (but really, DiCaprio isn’t losing).

4) Michael Fassbender/A Dangerous Method
WHY?:
Michael Fassbender has been making a real splash over the past few years, showing off his glowing charismatic talent in a wide range of roles and has most certainly been accruing much needed respect among his peers. Now he has a plum role in a prestige film. I had him higher on the list before I saw the disappointing trailer, but we won’t know anything until the reviews come pouring in, and right now I think his chances are pretty good.

5) Brad Pitt/Moneyball
WHY?:
Is Brad Pitt this year’s Sandra Bullock? The film looks incredibly mediocre and it sounds (on paper) to be a total borefest, but he’s Brad Pitt and the writer/director team behind this movie is totally Oscary, so maybe I’ll be wowed. Besides, Brad is going to be having a great year with lots of media attention thanks to his film releases and, well, his life…so I think he could get in regardless of how bland the film may actually be.

~

6) Daniel Craig/The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
7) George Clooney/The Descendants
Jean DuJardin/The Artist
9) Sam Riley/On the Road
10) Peter Mullan/Tyrannosaur

I really don’t know what to think right now. I mean, some things are just too predictable to actually happen, and the fact that this early out nearly every Oscar predictor has a DiCaprio/Golsing/Fassbender/Oldman lineup means that something is not going to happen, so I could be so off here.

But it just feels so right.

I know that George Clooney is nearly everyone’s cup of tea, but The Descendants looks so effing bland. I can’t fathom it being a huge player, and yet it probably is going to be, so look for Clooney to get nominated yet again for doing the same thing he did the last time he got nominated. I still think that Craig is going to get more attention than everyone is counting on (I swear that I am the only person talking Oscar and Daniel Craig ATM). The role is far more reserved than the one that is most likely locked up for a nomination, but it is also a very good one and if the film goes over huge I totally see Craig being swept in with the buzz.

After that I really don’t know.

I want to say that The Artist will be a really big hit across the board, mainly because it looks like so much fun (I can’t wait to see it), but I have my doubts considering the artistic approach taken to the film (it’s silent).

But you never know…

OTHER UPDATED PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
Best Director
Lead Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Posted by Fisti at 8:21 AM

http://jbaker475movies.blogspot.com/2011/07/2011-6-months-in-favorites.html

Tuesday, July 5, 2011
2011, 6 Months In: The Favorites
It's hard to believe, but half of 2011 is already gone. In a few months, we'll be hit with festivals from both Venice and Toronto, and then it's back to awards season madness. However, since that's still some ways off, I'd rather focus on the present: the halfway (well, probably a little past, but close enough) point of the year in movies. How 2011 will stack up against recent years remains to be seen, but it's certainly been a diverse year so far. Here's a look at my favorites (across the categories), written up as though today was the last day of the year:

The Half-Way Favorites:

Best Picture:
13 Assassins
Bridesmaids
Certified Copy
The Double Hour
Hanna
Jane Eyre
Midnight in Paris
Rango
The Tree of Life
Win Win

Winner: The Tree of Life


Best Director:
Giuseppe Capotondi - The Double Hour
Abbass Kiarostami - Certified Copy
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Gore Verbinski - Rango
Joe Wright - Hanna

Winner: Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life


Best Actor:
Johnny Depp - Rango
Paul Giamatti - Win Win
Mel Gibson - The Beaver
Peter Mullan - Tyrannosaur
William Shimmell - Certified Copy

Winner: Peter Mullan - Tyrannosaur


Best Actress:
Juliette Binoche - Certified Copy
Olivia Colman - Tyrannosaur
Kseniya Rappoport - The Double Hour
Saoirse Ronan - Hanna
Mia Wasikowska - Jane Eyre
Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids

Winner: Juliette Binoche - Certified Copy


Best Supporting Actor:
Michael Fassbender - Jane Eyre
Hunter McCracken - The Tree of Life
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Christoph Waltz - Water for Elephants
Anton Yelchin - The Beaver

Winner: Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life


Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett - Hanna
Rose Byrne - Bridesmaids
Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life
Melanie Lynskey - Win Win
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids

Winner [TIE]: Cate Blanchett - Hanna/Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life


Best Original Screenplay:
Bridesmaids
Certified Copy
The Double Hour
Midnight in Paris
Tyrannosaur

Winner: The Double Hour


Best Adapted Screenplay:
Incendies
Jane Eyre
X-Men: First Class
--
--

Winner: Jane Eyre


Best Editing:
The Beaver
The Double Hour
Hanna
Midnight in Paris
Tyrannosaur

Winner: Hanna


Best Cinematography:
13 Assassins
The Double Hour
Hanna
Jane Eyre
The Tree of Life

Winner: The Tree of Life


Best Art Direction:
Hanna
Jane Eyre
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

Winner: The Tree of Life


Best Costume Design:
Hanna
Jane Eyre
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Water for Elephants

Winner: Hanna


Best Animated Film: Rango [default]

Best Foreign Language Film:
13 Assassins [Japan]
Certified Copy [Belgium/France/Italy]
The Double Hour [Italy]
Incendies [Canada]
Of Gods and Men [France]

Winner: The Double Hour [Italy]


Best Original Score:
The Double Hour - Pasquale Catalano
Hanna - The Chemical Brothers
Jane Eyre - Dario Marianelli
Rango - Hans Zimmer
The Tree of Life - Alexandre Desplat

Winner: Hanna - The Chemical Brothers


Best Original Song: "Hanna's Theme" - Hanna [default]

Best Makeup:
13 Assassins
Hanna
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
X-Men: First Class

Winner: 13 Assassins


Best Visual Effects:
Fast Five
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

Winner: The Tree of Life
Posted by jbaker475 at 12:16 PM

http://nevertooearlymoviepredictions.blogspot.com/2011/07/84th-oscar-lead-actor-updates-2011-2012.html

Friday, July 8, 2011
84th Oscar Lead Actor Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (7/8/11)
Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Lead Actor race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

1. Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March (previous rank 2)
3. Michael Fassbender in A Dangerous Method (previous rank 3)
4. George Clooney in The Descendants (previous rank 7)
5. Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (previous rank 5)

Alternates:
6. Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50 (previous rank 11)
7. Jean Dujardin in The Artist (New)
8. Antonio Banderas in La Piel Que Habito (The Skin That I Inhabit) (previous rank 4)
9. Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary (previous rank
10. Brad Pitt in Moneyball (previous rank 22)
11. Michael Shannon in Take Shelter (previous rank 17)
12. John C. Reilly in Carnage (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 7)
13. Matt Damon in We Bought A Zoo (previous rank 15)
14. Sam Riley in On The Road (previous rank 10)
15. Anton Yelchin in Like Crazy (previous rank 13)
16. Woody Harrelson in Rampart (previous rank 25)
17. Tahar Rahim in Black Gold (previous rank 12)
18. Daniel Craig in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (New)
19. Ewan McGregor in Beginners (previous rank 14)
20. Brad Pitt in The Tree Of Life (if he is pushed lead) (previous rank 6)
21. Thomas Horn in Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (previously listed in 85th Oscar race, rank 18)
22. Evan Ross in Mooz-lum (previous rank 9)
23. Matt Damon in Contagion (previous rank 33)
24. Jeremy Irvine in War Horse (previous rank 32)
25. Hunter McCracken in The Tree Of Life (previously listed as supporting, rank 28)
26. Michael Fassbender in Shame (previous rank 27)
27. Ralph Feinnes in Coriolanus (previous rank 34)
28. Demian Bichir in A Better Life (New)
29. Paul Giamatti in Win Win (previous rank 30)
30. Anthony Mackie in Bolden! (previous rank 21)
31. David Hyde Pierce in The Perfect Host (New)
32. Tobey Maguire in The Details (previous rank 20)
33. Cuba Gooding Jr. in Red Tails (previous rank 16)
34. Ryan Gosling in Drive (New)
35. Tom Hardy in Warrior (New)
36. Asa Butterfield in Hugo (New)
37. Eddie Redmayne in My Week With Marilyn (New)
38. Sean Penn in This Must Be The Place (previous rank 19)
39. Peter Mullan in Tyrannosaur (previous rank 31)
40. Luis Tosar in Tambien La Lluvia (Even The Rain) (previous rank 26)
41. James McAvoy in The Conspirator (previous rank 35)
42. Omari Hardwick in I Will Follow (previous rank 18)
43. Dominic Cooper in The Devil’s Double (previous rank 36)
44. James D’Arcy in W.E. (New)
45. Jim Sturgess in One Day (New)
46. Goran Kostic in In The Land Of Blood And Honey (New)
47. James Franco in Maladies (New)
48. Paul Rudd in Our Idiot Brother (New)
49. Steve Carell in Crazy Stupid Love (New)
50. Owen Wilson in Midnight In Paris (New)


As always, check the Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner of this blog for the most updated predictions in all categories!
Posted by NeverTooEarlyMP at 7/08/2011 11:00:00 AM

http://www.filmmisery.com/?p=7666

OSCAR TRACKER: Best Supporting Actor and Actress Predictions 2012

Friday, July 8, 2011 4 Comments
Share
0digg

One of the big influences for making Best Supporting Actor and Actress predictions this early in the season is the desire to see an established actor who has never won before finally get their due. Names like Christopher Plummer, Paul Giamatti, Viola Davis, and Emily Watson are mentioned in this year’s batch of contenders if for no other reason than hopes are high that this may finally be their year. As a movie fan I always have the desire to see the year’s best performance actually winning the award, but I am rarely upset when a deserving performer who has a significant catalog of work finally gets recognition from their peers.

This year there are a decent amount of up and coming actors who could earn a nomination for the first time including Ezra Miller, Armie Hammer, Hunter McCracken, Jessica Chastain, or Mia Wasikowska. The past several years have shown a nice mix of winners who were first time nominees and multiple nominees, young actors and older actors, Awards magnets and first time phenoms. With very little known this time in the year, here are my predictions for how 2011 might end up.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

1) Christopher Plummer – Beginners

A rule of thumb when it comes to making early Oscar predictions is to go with what you know and having seen Beginners, I know that Christopher Plummer is phenomenal as the elderly father of the protagonist. It is unclear what sort of competition will emerge yet this year to challenge Plummer, but this long-time actor who is experiencing some of his best work in the twilight of his life will be hard to beat.

2) Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method

Every year I choose a film early to throw a large amount of support behind in terms of Awards probability. In case it is not obvious that film this year is David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method. Besides the fact that Cronenberg and frequent collaborator Viggo Mortensen are very overdue for a nomination, this film offers real-life characters in suspenseful roles that should be challenging and rewarding if the film is a success.

3) Christoph Waltz – Carnage

Coming off his first Oscar win for 2009′s Inglourious Basterds, Christoph Waltz became an incredibly hot commodity in Hollywood almost overnight. Roman Polanski’s Carnage should offer great opportunities for all four of its principles and now that it has for sure been slated for a 2011 release it has to be in any awards conversation.

4) Ezra Miller – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Tilda Swinton got most of the praise out of the Cannes Film Festival for her performance in Lynne Ramsay’s We Need to Talk About Kevin, but Miller was also praised for his small role. He plays a mentally imbalanced school shooter which could be the type of showy role that earns him some attention from several major Awards bodies. He will need a boost from the critics, but there is no reason he won’t be able to get it.

5) Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March or Moneyball

Who knows which actor (if any) will emerge as an Awards contender from George Clooney’s star-packed film The Ides of March. Hoffman has the early advantage because he tends to steal the screen from anybody he appears with and is already in the Academy’s favor. He won his only Oscar for appearing in Bennett Miller’s Capote so look for him to get some buzz for having a smaller part in Miller’s follow-up Moneyball.

View the Rest of the Supporting Actor Predictions

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

1) Viola Davis – The Help

Davis lights up the stage annually and has made a rather impressive transition to film where she has already earned an Oscar nomination for about 8-minutes of screen time in 2008′s Doubt. Buzz from early screenings of The Help have singled out Davis as the film’s show-stealer with Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere saying she is “now at or near the top of the 2011 Best Supporting Actress list.”

2) Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus

It is difficult for actors and actress who appear in Shakespeare adaptations to earn Oscar nominations despite the fact that the material is challenging and the performances are often some of the year’s best. I suspect the primary reason is because Shakespeare adaptations are done quite frequently and the Academy has seen it all already. However, this is the first big screen adaptation of Coriolanus which means the feisty Volumnia has yet to be seen, a great opportunity for Redgrave.

3) Jessica Chastain – Take Shelter

If not Michael Fassbender, 2011 may belong to Jessica Chastain who springs from obscurity to roles in a Terence Malick film, a John Madden film, and Take Shelter – one of the standouts of the Sundance Film Festival. She was highly praised for playing the sympathetic wife opposite Michael Shannon’s deranged schizophrenic and her other film The Tree of Life is likely to maintain Academy attention throughout the year.

4) Keira Knightly – A Dangerous Method

There was a lot of poking fun at the accent of Keira Knightley in the trailer for A Dangerous Method, but sources who have seen some of the film say she is actually fantastic and one of the film’s standouts. I suspect that she may be overshadowed by Fassbender and Mortensen, but if she can hold her own once again there is no reason she won’t receive some Awards attention.

5) Naomi Watts – J. Edgar

I personally thought Watts was overlooked for her excellent performance as Valerie Plame in 2010′s Fair Game. This year she is in a Clint Eastwood movie, which means it would be a shock if she turns in another great performance and is ignored once again. She plays Helen Gandy, the right-hand woman to J. Edgar Hoover who should get enough screen time for Watts to really show her chops.

http://forizzer69.wordpress.com/2011/07/12/halfway-awards-2011/

Halfway Awards: 2011

July 12, 2011 at 8:13 pm (Personal Awards!)

I’ve not been reviewing much, and I don’t think I really will be for the next little while (though perhaps when I rewatch The Tree Of Life I’ll do one up), but here’s some superfluity. Going by US release to make this a far more interesting affair than it would be if I were to exclude, say, HaHaHa.

BEST PICTURE
Aurora
HaHaHa
Bal (Honey)
Meek’s Cutoff
Midnight In Paris

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Mitsuru Fukikoshi – Cold Fish
Benoit Magimal – Little White Lies
Hunter McCracken – The Tree Of Life
Cristi Puiu – Aurora
Jun-Sang Yu – HaHaHa

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Marion Cotillard – Little White Lies
Liana Liberto – Trust
Takako Matsu – Confessions
Michelle Williams – Meek’s Cutoff
Jeong-hie Yun – Poetry

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Michael Fassbender – Jane Eyre
Ryu Kohata – City of Life and Death
Brad Pitt – The Tree Of Life
Corey Stoll – Midnight In Paris
Christoph Waltz – Water For Elephants

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jessica Chastain – The Tree Of Life
Zoe Kazan – Meek’s Cutoff
Melanie Lynskey – Win Win
Maria Popistasu – Tuesday, After Christmas
Moon So-ri – HaHaHa

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen – Midnight In Paris
Benjamin Heisenberg – The Robber
Semih Kaplanoglu – Bal (Honey)
Cristi Puiu – Aurora
Kelly Reichardt – Meek’s Cutoff

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bal (Semih Kaplanoglu)
Cold Fish (Shion Sono)
HaHaHa (Sang-soo Hong)
Meek’s Cutoff (Kelly Reichardt + Jonathan Raymond)
Midnight In Paris (Woody Allen)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Not good enough to even try.

http://www.filmmisery.com/?p=7722

Best Films and Performances of the First Half of 2011

Saturday, July 16, 2011

As I have mentioned numerous times over the past several weeks, I firmly believe that 2011 is one of the best years for movies in a while. That belief is thanks in enormous part to three particular films that would have likely been contenders for my favorite film of the year in any of the past three years. I will get to those films in a minute. As far as performances go, those have been less transcendent. There have been two performances this year that have truly stood out as the type that deserve to be revisited come Awards season, but nothing much beyond that. Those also happen to be the Actor and Actress that top my lists below.

By my count I have seen 31 new films so far this year (I’m on pace to set a record). Here are m five best experiences at the theatre so far:

Best Films

5) Potiche – Directed by François Ozon

The great eye of director François Ozon and the pitch perfect comic timing of both Catherine Deneuve and Gérard Depardieu are primarily what make this film a delight. It also successfully manages to make commentary about power struggles within gender and class without ever taking itself too seriously. [Full Review]

4) Bridesmaids – Directed by Paul Feig

Despite being entirely different in tone the qualities that make Bridesmaids a great film are the same as the ones that made me appreciate Potiche. Both films are comedies that do not seem to realize they are comedies. By that I mean the respective roles are portrayed with such an austere sense of realism that there is never a distracting wink at the camera. As an American mainstream comedy Bridesmaids was a glorious breath of fresh air as it was funnier and had more heart that just about anything else Hollywood has put out recently. It also offers a star-making turn for Kristen Wiig who deservedly has been collecting accolades. [Podcast Review]

3) Midnight in Paris – Directed by Woody Allen

Since initially seeing Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris I have gone over it in my head dozens of times in order to determine whether I liked it because it had a true heart or because it had smart people references that I could push up my glasses and laugh at. The conclusion that I came to is – does it matter? The film captures the exact essence of “movie magic” that is so rare among mainstream films. The credit can only partially go to Allen as much of it belongs to the title city that can bring inspiration to almost any work of art. [Full Review]

2) The Tree of Life – Directed by Terence Malick

One of the greatest things a film can do for me is reveal an honest beauty in a world I already knew about and this epic film from one of the greatest living auteurs does that in at least three ways. First it uses the camera, expertly directed by Emmanual Lubezki, to show earthly landscapes and human characters in perfectly lit serenity to show the beauty of God. Second it uses visual effects to show the majesty and beauty that can be created by man. Third, and most crucial, it uses an open-ended narrative structure to show how the two can exist in harmony. The Tree of Life is probably a film I will visit yearly and come out of it with a completely different visceral reaction every time and I look forward to those viewings with high anticipation.

1) Certified Copy – Directed by Abbas Kiarostami

The conclusion of Abbas Kiarostami’s romantic drama left me with one of the best post-film viewing experiences I can recount – mouth agape, trying to re-assemble the pieces of the story I just saw. Certified Copy is a perfect product of its time (I challenge anyone to find better commentary about Hollywood), yet also completely timeless. The central couple embarks on an adventure that is equal parts romance and mystery, creating a relationship that may or may not be entirely fictional. This film will be shown in film classes for decades to come to incite a discussion on the value of art and it is easily the best new film I have seen in years. [Full Review]

Best Performances by an Actress

3) Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids

This Saturday Night Live alumnus earns her keep as a bona fide queen of comedy with this honest and silly performance. As co-writer of the films, Wiig had almost complete creative control over the character and this allowed her bring a great sense of truth. Her character was not a romantic comedy stereotype nor was she too restrained to prevent her from revealing some cattiness.

2) Mia Wasikowska – Jane Eyre

While she may not get an Oscar nomination this year, there are definitely big things in Mia Wasikowska’s future. She became recognizable with last year’s Alice in Wonderland, held her own against Julianne Moore and Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, and this year she has already balanced the fabulous Michael Fassbender on this dark interpretation of the classic novel.

1) Juliette Binoche – Certified Copy

Juliette Binoche is unquestionably one of the most daring and talented actresses working today and her performance in Abbas Kiarostami’s Certified Copy is one of her all-time best. The dynamic Binoche is able to portray a myriad of emotions with what appears to be incredible ease as her enthusiasm melts into cynicism in a fantastic and heart-wrenching way.

Best Performances by an Actor

3) Mel Gibson – The Beaver

There is no way Gibson will receive an Oscar nomination because of he is a public relations nightmare. However, he should still be recognized for having one of the best performances of 2011 so far. He manages to portray a depressed schizophrenic with such calculated balance that his characters’ uncouth behavior feels refreshingly honest.

2) Michael Fassbender – X-Men: First Class

I currently have Michael Fassbender at the top of my Best Actor prediction charts, but for another movie – David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method. Whether he does or doesn’t score a nomination he will have to be recognized as the actor of the year with two smashing performances already under his belt (Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class) and three more on the way (Shame, Haywire, A Dangerous Method). I chose to recognize him for X-Men: First Class because I honestly believe any other actor in that role would have made the movie less watchable.

1) Christopher Plummer – Beginners

The only performance this year that I feel safe to say is almost guaranteed an Oscar nomination is the legendary Christopher Plummer’s work in Beginners is heartbreaking and sympathetic without being too sweet. He reveals himself as a character with flaws and a past he is not necessarily proud of, but chooses to forget instead of regret. His boyish enthusiasm is infectious and his character steals every scene in the movie.

Worst Films

The Hangover: Part II – Directed by Todd Phillips

Apparently the cast were unavailable for a sequel to The Hangover so they just decided to digitally remove Las Vegas and insert Thailand. The result was making a bad movie worse. [Podcast Review]

The Conspirator – Directed by Robert Redford

This forgettable historical drama focused on the wrong characters and made the whole affair less interesting, no matter how much it tried to be a modern political metaphor. [Podcast Review]

Everything Must Go – Directed by Dan Rush

Put every indie movie cliche in a bag, shake vigorously and serve. Don’t forget to remove any subtlety and add some over-acting. [Podcast Review]

What are your favorites and least favorites from 2011 so far?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/gallery/2011/jul/25/oscars-awards-films#/?picture=377027537&index=0

Should be a contender: the 50 big films vying for Oscar's attention

The end of July means the start of the awards season: it's when the two big autumn film festivals – Venice and Toronto – start to announce their programmes, and when we get a first look at those movies that'll be on everyone's radar next spring. Here are our top 50 Oscar tips, ranked in order, from bottom to top. Let us know what you think, and what we've forgotten (we'll deal with documentary and foreign language films separately)

35: Haywire. Mixed martial arts pro and former American Gladiator Gina Carano plays a ex-black ops soldier on the run from the unit she used to work for. Michael Fassbender, Channing Tatum, Ewan McGregor and Antonio Banderas star as the team that must bring her in (and as the credible acting talent who could raise this above a standard Bourne-esque stomp 'n thump). The trailer – a melee of gunplay, scowling and acrobatic fisticuffs – suggests that director Steven Soderbergh (whose last film, The Last Time I Saw Michael Gregg, was an improvised comedy based on a theatre company staging a Chekov play) is back at the popcorn counter. Oscar is likely to find this Salt-y rather than sweet

34: Jane Eyre. Once Hollywood's starlet-du-jour Mia Wasikowska signed up to this adaptation of Charlotte Brontë’s novel, it immediately shot into the award-bait category. And with Michael Fassbender opposite her, as the mysterious Mr Rochester, there's potential for both to make their major-gong breakthrough. But the early release (March 2011 in the US; we're waiting until the autumn over here) says that there's little confidence in it building enough momentum to win anything

25: Shame, the new one from Steve (Hunger) McQueen, has no release date pencilled in yet (and no publicity stills either; this is an on-set snap), but the chances of this erotic vehicle for Michael Fassbender finding its way into the autumn festival programme seem high. Carey Mulligan co-stars as his sister

14: A Dangerous Method is a tale of warring psychoanalysts, directed by David Cronenberg and starring Viggo Mortensen; a film that puts A History of Violence on the couch. Mortensen plays Freud while Michael Fassbender plays Jung. Both are at loggerheads over the beautiful, troubled Sabina Spielrein (Keira Knightley). It could bag nominations for the acting, directing and Christopher Hampton's adapted screenplay. But will the subject matter prove too dour and cerebral for Academy voters? Or might the treatment even be a touch too Carry on …?

http://www.lordofthefilms.net/2011/07/2012-oscar-predictions.html

July 22, 2011
2012 Oscar Predictions

Here are my second attempt at predictions for the 84th Academy Awards. I will be predicting every category except Foreign Language Film and the Short Film categories as they have a much more complicated system for nominating. Additionally, a new system for voting for Best Picture nominees has been established since I last predicted the nominees. There will now be anywhere between 5 and 10 Best Picture nominees instead of a guaranteed 10. To be nominated a film will need 5% of the 1st place vote for Best Picture.

As of right now there seem to be 5 major Best Picture contenders so I will only predict 5 Best Picture nominees at the moment.


BEST PICTURE
-The Artist
-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-The Ides of March
-The Tree of Life
-War Horse

BEST DIRECTOR
-George Clooney, The Ides of March
-Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-Michael Hazanvicius, The Artist
-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
-Steven Spielberg, War Horse

BEST LEAD ACTOR
-Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
-Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
-Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
-Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
-Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
-Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
-Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
-Charlize Theron, Young Adult
-Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
-Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
-Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
-Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
-Christopher Plummer, Beginners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter
-Viola Davis, The Help
-Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
-Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
-Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-The Ides of March
-Moneyball
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
-The Artist
-J. Edgar
-Midnight in Paris
-Take Shelter
-Young Adult

BEST ANIMATED FILM
-Happy Feet 2
-Kung Fu Panda 2
-Rango
-Winnie the Pooh

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
-Cave of Forgotten Dreams
-Life in a Day
-Louder Than A Bomb
-Project Nim
-Tabloid

BEST ART DIRECTION
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
-Hugo
-Jane Eyre
-The Tree of Life
-War Horse

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
-The Artist
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
-Hugo
-The Tree of Life
-War Horse

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
-The Artist
-Hugo
-Jane Eyre
-Water For Elephants
-War Horse

BEST FILM EDITING
-The Artist
-A Dangerous Method
-The Ides of March
-The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
-War Horse

BEST MAKEUP
-Captain America; The First Avenger
-The Iron Lady
-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
-The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
-The Artist
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
-Rango
-War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
-The Adventures of Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
-Happy Feet 2
-The Muppets
-The Muppets
-Rio

BEST SOUND EDITING
-The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
-Harry Potter and the Dathly Hallows, Part 2
-Super 8
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
-War Horse

BEST SOUND MIXING
-The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
-The Artist
-Super 8
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
-War Horse

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
-Cowboys and Aliens
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
-Rise of the Planet of the Apes
-Super 8
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon


HYPOTHETICAL NOMINATION LEADERS
10-War Horse
8-The Artist
7-The Ides of March
5-Harry Potter ad the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
-The Tree of Life
4-The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
-A Dangerous Method
3-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-Hugo
-Super 8
-Take Shelter
-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
2-The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
-Happy Feet 2
-J. Edgar
-Jane Eyre
-The Muppets
-My Week With Marilyn
-Rango
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-Young Adult
Posted by Ryan at 4:51 PM

http://www.cathsfilmforum.com/?p=1819

Long Overdue

photo Three of my favorite actors are breaking out in 2011. Between Robin Wright, Michael Fassbender and Daniel Craig, there will be 12 movies this year starring one or more of these excellent actors. It’s wonderful to see and it gets me excited that such great talent is finally being recognized by Hollywood.

But the ultimate recognition is, of course, by Oscar, and it gets me to thinking about all the excellent actors out there that have been producing incredible work for years who have yet to win the ultimate prize, including these three incredible actors—none of whom have even been nominated.

So, as we slowly creep towards Oscar season, here is my (very subjective) list of the best actors working today who should have the title “Oscar winner” before their name. I mean, if Cuba Gooding, Jr. can have it… (I’ve listed the number of previous nominations they have received, if any. I think you’ll be surprised.)

ACTORS WHO DESERVE AN OSCAR:

Don Cheadle–1 nomination
Jeremy Renner—2 nominations
Michael Fassbender
Robin Wright
Daniel Craig
Leonardo DiCaprio—3 nominations
Gary Oldman
Sam Rockwell
Ewan McGregor
Steve Buscemi
Guy Pearce
Diane Lane—1 nomination
Glenn Close—5 nominations
David Straitharn—1 nomination
Albert Finney—3 nominations
Johnny Depp—3 nominations
Ian McKellen—2 nominations
Robert Downey, Jr.—2 nominations
Peter O’Toole—8 nominations
Ralph Fiennes—2 nominations
Sigourney Weaver—3 nominations
Brad Pitt–2 nominations
Ed Harris—4 nominations
Helena Bonham Carter—2 nominations
Annette Bening—4 nominations
Julianne Moore—4 nominations
John Hurt—2 nominations
Ed Norton—2 nominations
Carey Mulligan—1 nomination
Michelle Williams—2 nominations
Emily Watson—2 nominations
Jake Gyllenhaal—1 nomination
Catherine Keener—2 nominations
Miranda Richardson—2 nominations
Tom Wilkinson—2 nominations
William H. Macy—1 nomination

Is there anyone I missed?
Who’s your favorite?
And who on this list do you think will win Oscar first?
Posted: August 18th, 2011

http://filmonic.com/festivals-shed-light-on-upcoming-awards-season#.Tm1q1tTazEo

Festivals shed light on upcoming awards season

by Rob on September 11, 2011

tree of life awards With fall approaching it is time to start placing our bets on who 2011’s big award winners will be. The first eight months of the year have provided us with very little award-worthy cinema, but that is usually the way of it. The only film with a wide release to gain serious Oscar buzz so far is The Help. Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, and Jessica Chastain all turned heads with their performances, and the film’s box office success will probably serve to strengthen its awards season bid.

Speaking of Jessica Chastain, I probably shouldn’t write off The Debt or Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life, which both feature several respectable cast members, including Chastain. The Tree of Life won the Cannes Film Festival top award, the Palm d’Or, but has received very mixed reviews otherwise. It seems that any movie with Helen Mirren in it makes people take notice, so The Debt might get some love in the coming months.

The Venice Film Festival, which held its closing ceremonies this Saturday, offered what might be an early contender for best actor: Michael Fassbender in Shame, a movie detailing the unraveling life of a sex addict, which also stars Carey Mulligan (An Education, Never Let Me Go). Fassbender, who played Magneto in this summer’s X-Men: First Class and Rochester in the recent Jane Eyre, won the top acting prize at the festival. He will also be seen this year in A Dangerous Method playing real life psychiatrist Carl Jung, alongside Viggo Mortensen (The Road, The Lord of the Rings) playing Sigmund Freud, and Keira Knightley (The Duchess, Pirates of the Caribbean). 2011 has certainly been a busy and impressive year for Fassbender.

The Toronto International Film Festival, one of the most influential and prestigious film festivals around, is currently running. Films such as Moneyball, Faust, The Ides of March, The Descendants, Albert Nobbs, The Hunter, We Need to Talk About Kevin, and dozens of others potential winners will be shown there in the next week.

While TIFF doesn’t hand out competitive prizes, it does give the People’s Choice Award for the highest rated movie of the festival. Last year’s Oscar winner, The King’s Speech, took home the People’s Choice Award, so it’s one worth considering if you’re trying to get an early handle on who might woo the academy this year. The People’s Choice Award will be announced on September 18th.

Awards season won’t really get moving until December, but in the meantime autumn’s film festivals ought to offer us some insight into who the heavyweights will be.

http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/arts/fall-film-some-oscar-hopefuls-are-worthy-of-1864000.html

Fall film: Some Oscar hopefuls are worthy 
of praise ... or
 good-natured digs.

By ROBERT SIMS

Special to the Daily News

Updated: 7:22 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011

Posted: 5:07 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011

Nice to know Eddie Murphy’s going to host next year’s Academy Awards. Now all we have to do is see the films that will be in the running for Oscar gold and susceptible to ribbing by Murphy.

There’s some buzz that Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris and the sleeper smash The Help will be in contention. Otherwise, the summer didn’t bring much in the way of Oscar-worthy offerings. But the arrival of fall means that Hollywood’s gearing up for awards season.

Chatter out of the Toronto and Venice film festivals is loud for David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method, George Clooney’s The Ides of March, and Alexander Payne’s The Descendants.

Other films with Oscar aspirations are Roman Polanski’s adaptation of Carnage; Clint Eastwood’s 
J. Edgar biography; Angelina Jolie’s directorial debut In the Land of Blood and Honey; Meryl Streep’s Margaret Thatcher bio The Iron Lady; Pedro Almodóvar’s first film in 21 years with Antonio Banderas, The Skin I Live In; Jeff Nichols’ Sundance smash Take Shelter; Tomas Alfredson’s film version of John le Carré’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Steven Spielberg’s latest epic, War Horse; Cameron Crowe’s first film in six years, We Bought a Zoo; and the next Jason Reitman-Diablo Cody collaboration, Young Adult.

Not everything released in the fall is designed to win awards. Believe it not, some films are purely made to entertain us and reap big bucks. Think Abduction, Taylor Lautner’s first attempt to carry his own action film; The Adventures of Tintin, directed by Spielberg and produced by Peter Jackson; Anonymous, a period piece that questions William Shakespeare’s accomplishments; The Big Year, a comedy about bird watching; Jack and Jill, featuring Adam Sandler in Tyler Perry mode; Killer Elite, pitting Jason Statham and Robert De Niro against Clive Owen; New Year’s Eve, a romance in the vein of Valentine’s Day; Real Steel, with robots throwing punches in the boxing ring; and Tower Heist, Eddie Murphy’s latest comeback attempt.

Prequels and sequels include Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas, Happy Feet Two, Johnny English Reborn, Mission Impossible—Ghost Protocol, The Muppets, Paranormal Activity 3, Piranha 3DD, Puss in Boots, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Thing, and likely the most anticipated, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1.

Hollywood looks back to its past with remakes of Footloose, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Straw Dogs and The Three Musketeers.

We may no longer be willing to spend extra to watch a film in 3D, but that doesn’t mean Hollywood won’t try to squeeze a few more bucks out of us. My money’s going to 3D endeavors by directors with strong artistic vision and integrity, such as Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin and Martin Scorsese’s Hugo. Let me know if you get what you pay for from A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas and Piranha 3DD.

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2011/09/oscar-futures-clooney-pitt-eastwood.html

Oscar Futures: Sorry, We Bought a Zoo

9/16/11 at 2:00 PM
5Comments

Oscar Futures: Sorry, We Bought a Zoo

Every week between now and January 24, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.
Best Picture UP: The Descendants. The George Clooney dramedy got great buzz at Toronto, even as it picked up its first dissenters. DOWN: We Bought a Zoo. The trailer says "Golden Globes," not "Oscar."
CURRENT PREDIX: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, J. Edgar, Midnight in Paris, War Horse
Best Director UP: Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar). Eastwood played things a little quiet over the past few months, and then BLAM! Leonardo DiCaprio is on the cover of GQ, Armie Hammer's on the cover of Details, and Clint's gearing up to premiere his highly anticipated movie at the AFI Fest. DOWN: Fernando Meirelles (360). The onetime nominee for City of God won't get asked back to the dance this time, to judge from the withering reviews of 360 out of Toronto.
CURRENT PREDIX: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris); Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo); Michael Hazanavicious (The Artist); Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Best Actor UP: Brad Pitt (Moneyball). THR's Scott Feinberg thinks that Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio are the category's two front-runners. DOWN: Michael Shannon (Take Shelter). It's a terrific, tough lead performance in an indie that needs support. The problem? Michael Fassbender's working the same angle for Shame (which was just thrown into awards season), and he's got full-frontal nudity and youthful buzz in his favor.
CURRENT PREDIX: George Clooney (The Descendants); Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar); Jean Dujardin (The Artist); Michael Fassbender (Shame); Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Best Actress UP: Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn). That Vogue cover! That heartbreaking backstory! That willingness to work the awards circuit! Could Williams make a lunge for the gold? DOWN: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs). Pundits were disappointed by Close last week, and it didn't get any better at Toronto: "There has been some Oscar buzz around Glenn Close but frankly, we just don’t see it happening (unless the field is very weak this year)," snapped the Playlist.
CURRENT PREDIX: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs); Viola Davis (The Help); Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady); Charlize Theron (Young Adult); Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
Best Supporting Actor UP: Christopher Plummer (Beginners). Plummer's also got a potential Best Actor nod coming if the right distributor picks up his one-man show Barrymore, but Jeff Wells thinks that performance will just add to his odds in the Supporting category: "I'm all but convinced he has the Oscar in the bag." DOWN: Nick Nolte (Warrior). He's still hanging in there, but Warrior's meager box-office take is a significant blow.
CURRENT PREDIX: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn); Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady); Albert Brooks (Drive); Nick Nolte (Warrior); Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Best Supporting Actress UP: Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs). Several reviews claim that McTeer's cross-dresser steals the movie from Glenn Close. But can either of them get traction? DOWN: Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method). Several Oscar pundits are advocating that Knightley — terrific in a divisive performance — should drop down to Supporting. Bull: She's a clear lead.
CURRENT PREDIX: Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); Jessica Chastain (The Help); Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus); Octavia Spencer (The Help); Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

http://www.movieline.com/2011/09/introducing-movielines-2011-oscar-index-your-weekly-fool-proof-awards-race-breakdown.php?page=2

The Oscars || by S.T. VanAirsdale || 09 21 2011 6:00 PM
Introducing Movieline’s 2011 Oscar Index: Your Weekly, Fool-Proof Awards-Race Breakdown

index_actress_092111.jpg

The Leading 5:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
3. Viola Davis, The Help
4. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Outsiders: Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Emma Stone, The Help, Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Michelle Yeoh, The Lady

This is already shaping up as the the most cutthroat race of all, if only for the forces at play and politics at hand. Harvey Weinstein has not one but two lead actresses nearly certain to make the top 10; he’ll be pushing to end Streep’s 30-year win drought and get the increasingly beloved Williams her second nomination in as many years. Then there’s Close, who hasn’t even been nominated since the late ’80s and has a shapeshifting, gender-bending role to remind the Academy she’s not just on TV anymore. Davis belongs in the discussion despite protests that The Help is Stone’s movie, if only because regardless of how much The Help makes, one glance at the competition means it’s a veteran’s race. (That’s partly why I don’t even entirely scoff at the suggestion that Yeoh could sneak in, though she seems less in the vein of 2008-era Melissa Leo than, say 2010-era Halle Berry.)

Meanwhile GoldDerby asks the fair (and relevant) question, “Are Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton one-time Oscar wonders?” Swinton in particular reiterated recently that she couldn’t care less about her Supporting Actress win in 2007 (“I don’t know what it means. […] I wasn’t brought up on this planet. I never wanted to win anything but the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But I’m not a race horse.”), an attitude that won’t necessarily advance her favor among voters regardless how much the majority of her peers respects her. That’s why I like Mara, Olsen or Jones to vie for either of the last two spots; that would signal the preference toward new, upstart blood that voters showed last year by nominating Jennifer Lawrence over Swinton — who went bilingual and everything for the celebrated I Am Love.

Incidentally, a few weeks ago after publishing Knightley among the preliminary Oscar Index’s possible Supporting Actress candidates, a publicist nagged me within minutes: “Just so you know Keira is a definite co-lead of ADM, she is in it from beginning to end, and definitely NOT a supporting character.” Well, yeah. Tell it to Hailee Steinfeld. And has anyone at Sony Classics seen the wasteland that is Supporting Actress this year? Be smart! Move her!


index_actor_092111.jpg

The Leading 5:
1. Michael Fassbender, Shame
2. George Clooney, The Descendants
3. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Outsiders: Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Tom Hardy, Warrior; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

Man, oh man, this will be good: Overdue megastars facing off against a cabal of rookie Euros. Even the Clooney factor being what it is can’t hide Fassbender’s surge, already the stuff of award-winning, soul-baring legend, not so far removed from the position that we saw Natalie Portman latch on to last year and never relinquish, even as the Bening campaign snapped ferociously at her ballet slippers.

Of course, Fassbender’s virtually certain nomination isn’t nearly the same thing as Fassbender win. After all, do you really think Fox Searchlight sank money into an NC-17 sex-addict opus because it planned to run Fassbender against Clooney in another Searchlight movie? This is a classic case of buying the competition so you can put it out of business — not box-office business, mind you, or even awards-season business. They want each nominated. But obviously only one can win, and only one has the clear potential to capitalize on that win in a mass-market, take-the-family sort of way. A nomination that will burnish the other’s art-house mythology will do just fine as well. Give this until mid-October, after both have screened at the New York Film Festival, and let’s see where things lie.

Elsewhere, Pitt and Oldman are getting some of the best reviews of their careers for their respective films, while DiCaprio has 4,000 makeup-chair hours invested in what he hopes will be his fourth nomination. Scott Feinberg says that it’s all down to Pitt and DiCaprio in particular, writing of the latter at THR, “I’ve heard from people who have already screened J. Edgar, but are not working on its behalf and have no vested interest in its success, that he will be very hard to beat.” Harrelson is losing TIFF momentum by the day without a U.S. distributor to take up Rampart’s cause, while Dujardin is the ultimate wild-card — not least because of his film’s old-fashioned charm and the types of inspired Weinstein dark arts that lifted Roberto Benigni to a surprising victory back in ‘98.

http://chicagocc.wordpress.com/2011/09/23/buzz-is-a-bitch-best-picture-2011-2012/

Buzz is a Bitch: Best Picture 2011-2012
September 23, 2011
by Daniel N.

As I bought tickets for the Chicago International Film Festival today, I found myself prioritizing films based on their buzz, neglecting smaller pictures that may sound good but won’t be in the awards conversation for the year. It comes to a point where you have to embrace the hysteria around Oscar prognostication and take part in the conversation to the fullest extent possible.

Fortunately for me, the Oscar conversation seems to be taking place outside of the festival realm. It gives me greater reign to actually look at films with little to no shot of entering the conversation due to lack of distribution or obscurity. But for films that have been garnering traction over the past few months at Toronto, Telluride, Cannes, and Venice, there’s a sense that it’s simply not enough. Whereas films like The King’s Speech or Slumdog Millionaire had an irresistible-force aura to their festival runs, no film really stands out over the festival circuit to lay claim to the prior two films’ crown. The Ides of March debuted at the Venice Film Festival and had its fair share of acclaim, but hardly the sort of fanatic diehard reception that a Best Picture nominee typically receives, let alone a potential winner. Steven McQueen’s Shame seems to be an actor’s showcase for Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan, but its appeal as a Best Picture contender is strictly contained to the art-house crowd. Madonna’s W.E. was a bust. Roman Polanski’s Carnage has failed to impress.

What were left from the festival rubble are Alexander Payne’s The Descendents, Tomas Alfredson’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, and Michel Hazanaviccius’ The Artist. The three films are anchored by strong leading male performances, and while they are at this point, likely nominees, neither is on solid footing.

The Artist

The Artist debuted at the Cannes Film Festival and has garnered universal praise. The film will undoubtedly garner enough passion votes to secure a nomination come the big day, but I sense a backlash forming. This is largely in part due to where it stands in the minds of the voters – as new films enter the conversation by the week (Moneyball this week, 50/50 next, etc) there seems to be a decline in the film’s staying power with audiences. The fact that it did not win the Audience Award at Toronto (an award that was bestowed on Best Picture nominees and winners like The King’s Speech, Precious, and Slumdog Millionaire) does not bode well for The Artist’s standing. And given that the film may come across as gimmicky for its own sake, it’s positioning is nowhere near as secure as one is led to believe. But then again, The Weinsteins are behind the film, so I’m probably just imagining it all.

The Descendents fits a specific pedigree of indie filmmaking that tend to get nominated once a year (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, The Kids are All Right), but it has already been acknowledged as a lesser effort from those who saw it at Telluride. It’s still riding a wave, but I have reserved expectations on its potential once it gets a wider release. Its comedic roots aren’t going to do it any favors, nor will the fact that Payne has already been recognized (albeit, in the Adapted Screenplay category). There is typically a time when individuals get recognized for their efforts – this was the case with Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, the Coens for No Country for Old Men – it’s not meant to dismiss the accomplishments of the individual performance or direction, but rather it serves as a lifetime achievement award. Simply put, Alexander Payne’s time doesn’t seem to be just now.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy has the benefit of a British contingent to bolster its chances and has a good awards-story in Gary Oldman getting a role that will finally get him recognized with a nomination. It, for all intensive purposes, achieves a particular role of what to expect in a “Best Picture” nominee, and from there, I’d say it’s in better position than The Descendents. The buzz for the film seems to have run stagnant for the past few weeks since its debut at Venice, which I take as a positive – I doubt Focus Features would to bust their load from the onset. Instead, there seems to be a conscious effort to keep Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy in a quiet buzz period, before releasing it to a wider audience come December.

The Festival Darlings

“The Artist”
“The Descendents”
“Tiinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy”

Alt: “The Ides of March”

Then we have the summer crop. The summer gave us some concrete possibilities of other nominees with Tate Taylor’s The Help, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris, and Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life leading the charge. I’d wager all three movies have the potential to make it to the end of the race, as they all tend to rouse a sort of passion vote that is a requirement in meeting the 5% (of first-place votes) needed for a nomination in the category. This works particularly well for The Tree of Life, as its polarizing status won’t necessarily do it any harm come the end of the race – there are those who love it and hate it, and only those who love it will be acknowledged come nomination time. Amongst outside contenders, the only one that bares any possibility seems to be the final addition to the Harry Potter franchise – given its critical acclaim, there’s a sense that the film could sneak in for a nomination. I think not – unlike The Lord of the Rings franchise, none of the previous Potter incarnations have garnered above-the-line awards recognition. I sincerely doubt that will change.

Summer Hold-Overs

“The Help”
“Midnight in Paris”
“The Tree of Life”

Alt: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

War Horse

So we have six. This leaves us with the possibility of yet another four. Here’s where things get particularly tricky as we explore a great deal of unknowns. The general consensus has placed Steven Spielberg’s War Horse as the one to beat, and quite honestly, it’s not hard to see why. It’s a period piece, set against the backdrop of a war, with Spielberg at its helm. I talked about it being someone’s time earlier in this piece, and if anything, this season seems to be geared toward rewarding Spielberg yet again – his time seems to be here yet again.

Remaining amongst the unknowns include Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar. I’m hesitant to lobby for Eastwood’s place in the Academy’s circle, particularly given that he has been largely shut out of the larger awards for the past few years with Invictus, Changling, and Gran Torino. But then again, so has Woody Allen, and Midnight in Paris was a return to form, so it’s hard to make such blanket statements with no word on the actual quality of the film.

Jason Reitman’s Young Adult is bypassing the festival circuit entirely, leaving one to question where the film stands at all. It’s written by Diablo Cody, which begs more questions than answers. Reitman’s previous two films have garnered directorial and Best Picture nominations, which lends itself to the same logic that has people believing that Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is a lock for a nomination. My take: neither film will make much of an impact come nomination time, but if there’s one that might, I’d go with Reitman’s film.

A big question mark that remains in the Oscar season and one that I sense could truly make a play that pundits are ignoring, is Martin Scorsese’s Hugo. The trailer displays incredible detail in the craft department, though there certainly seems to be a nostalgic essence to the film that could resonate with voters. Again, like with War Horse, J. Edgar, Young Adult, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, we’re in a wait and see mode with these films, but the possibility definitely seems there.

The Unknowns

“War Horse”
“J. Edgar”
“Hugo”
“Young Adult”
“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

And that concludes my first column of what I hope will be a weekly column that looks at the Oscar race. In the meantime, the site will be going through periodic updates as I attempt to create a more interactive and in-depth Academy Award interface. The focus of the site will still remain on my reviewing of the films I see (with a new post coming soon) but hopefully I’ll be able to supplement that with my own obsessive thoughts on the Oscar race.

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/hype/tiff-talk/2011/09/21/tiff-2011-roundup-seven-films-that-we-think-are-bound-for-box-office-or-critical-success/

TIFF 2011 Roundup: Seven films that we think are bound for box office (or critical) success

For the regular folk in Toronto, TIFF is primarily a time for star spotting, catching films that might not be seen otherwise and soaking up a kind of glitz and glamour that is otherwise rarely seen in Hogtown. But for the film industry, TIFF is big business—it’s where movies get big distribution deals and money (lots of it) exchanges hands. Over 30 titles were picked up from this year’s film festival, and more deals are surely on the way. We picked seven that we think are likely to be good investments, after the jump.

1. Shame
Fox Searchlight, an arm of 20th Century Fox, decided that fortune favours the bold, making the graphic tale of a depressed sex addict the first film picked up at TIFF. It was a shrewd buy: Michael Fassbender’s performance has been getting great reviews just about everywhere.

2. Wuthering Heights
Oscilloscope Laboratories has acquired rights to bring the updated version of Emile Brontë’s novel to the silver screen in North America. Sure, there will be groans from English students everywhere, but this latest, raw adaptation has been well received, winning the cinematography award at the Venice Film Festival. The company envisions a 2012 theatrical release.

3. God Bless America
The black comedy sees a middle-aged man and a teenage girl become serial killers, purging the land of morons and vapid pop-culture icons. We’re told that creator Bobcat Goldthwait was extremely daring with the current cut, but that didn’t stop Magnolia Pictures from grabbing worldwide rights. A 2012 theatrical release is in the works through its video-on-demand program.

4. The Hunter
This man-versus-nature story follows a mercenary as he tries to hunt down the last Tasmanian tiger. He’s supposed to soften as a character along the way, but given that the film stars Willem Dafoe, we’re not buying it. While critics have been applauding his performance, the lush environment and thoughtful cinematography are getting most of the praise. Magnolia Pictures owns U.S. rights, and plans to release the film next year through its video-on-demand program. EOne Films is handling the Canadian release.

5. The Oranges
Like several other TIFF films, The Oranges centres on an unorthodox romance that destroys the lives of everyone within its range of influence—thank goodness this one’s a comedy, with a widely lauded cast. ATO Pictures has picked up North American rights.

6. Trishna
This tragic and complicated love story, starring Slumdog Millionaire’s Freida Pino, is an Indian retelling of the Victorian novel Tess of the D’Ubervilles. Unlike, say, Thriller, we’re told Trishna transitions east extremely well. Sundance Selects (a sister division to IFC Films) picked up North American rights, with Bankside Films handling international distribution.

7. The Deep Blue Sea
This English post-war flick focuses on an alienated and neurotic woman as she makes increasingly desperate gambles for love. Critics are calling it tense and immersive, but we’re distraught by the lack of Samuel L. Jackson and mutant sharks. Music Box beat out at least three other bidders for U.S. rights.

http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/1967/stars-with-multiple-roles-in-the-oscar-race.html

Stars with multiple roles in the Oscar race
Take Shelter, Jessica Chastain, Ralph Fiennes, Michael Fassbender, George Clooney, Shame, Drive, Coriolanus, The Ides of March, The Help, Moneyball, A Dangerous Method, Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life, Kate Winslet, Michael Shannon, Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood, Naomi Watts, Nicole Kidman, Sean Penn, Ryan Gosling, Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Wahlberg, Academy Awards, Film, Oscars, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Actor, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Supp. Actor, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Supp. Actress
By Daniel Montgomery
Sep 23 2011 | 13:33 pm
|

Brad Pitt has the potential to be nominated for two Oscars this year: one for his acclaimed starring role in "Moneyball," and another in the supporting race for "The Tree of Life." But Pitt is in an enviable position; his role in "Moneyball" is clearly a leading performance, while in "The Tree of Life" his more limited screentime – the story is divided between him, his wife, his sons, the cosmos, and a couple of dinosaurs – makes a Best Supporting Actor campaign easy to justify.
MAKE YOUR GUTSY OSCAR PREDICTIONS - COMPETE AGAINST EXPERTS

Can Leo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar") finally win an Oscar? What about directors David Fincher ("Girl with the Dragon Tattoo") or Stephen Daldry ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close")? Give us your Oscar predictions now. Make changes later. Win badges and glory!

But what happens when an actor has multiple eligible performances vying in the same category? Academy rules dictate that only one performance may be nominated per category, which means actors and awards campaigners must make difficult decisions, or else do some fancy footwork.

Pitt's wife in "The Tree of Life" is played by Jessica Chastain, who seems to have a major role in every other film being touted in this year's Oscar derby. The 30-year-old actress also appears as an outcast Southern belle in "The Help," Michael Shannon's wife in "Take Shelter," Virgilia in Ralph Fiennes's update of Shakespeare's "Coriolanus," and a Mossad agent in "The Debt." If we rule out her arguably lead performance in "The Debt" – which is probably an Oscar nonstarter anyway – that leaves her with four supporting performances to choose from.

Michael Fassbender has a pair of leading roles competing for awards attention. "A Dangerous Method" looks good on paper; Fassbender plays famed psychologist Carl Jung, and Oscar voters are suckers for actors in biopics (six of the last ten Best Actor winners have played real people). Otherwise, he could be nominated for "Shame," a controversial film whose explicit sexual content may turn off the usually conservative Academy, but it's the kind of audacious performance that could inspire passionate support.

Ryan Gosling earned a Best Actor nomination five years ago for "Half Nelson." This year he could be nominated either for playing a reluctant getaway driver in "Drive" or a conflicted campaign manager in George Clooney's "The Ides of March." The latter film may be his better option; "Ides" is likelier to be nominated for Best Picture, and that is usually the safer bet for an acting nomination.

All three actors would do well to consider the outcomes for other actors who recently faced the same dilemma:

Nicole Kidman, 2001: Many thought she gave the superior performance in the haunted-house thriller "The Others," but "Moulin Rouge" was the film with greater overall support that awards season. She received Golden Globe nominations for both films, but Oscar voters preferred her work in "Moulin Rouge," which earned eight total nominations including Best Picture. Though she lost her Best Actress bid to Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Kidman won the following year for playing author Virginia Woolf in "The Hours."

Billy Bob Thornton, 2001: For a while, it seemed like his stronger film was the Coen Brothers' black-and-white film noir "The Man Who Wasn't There," which won the directing prize at Cannes and earned a Best Picture bid at the Golden Globes, but perhaps his focus should have been "Monster's Ball," which won his co-star Berry an aforementioned Best Actress Oscar. "The Man Who Wasn't There" ended up with only a cinematography nomination, and Thornton was not nominated for either role.

Sean Penn, 2003: That year, he starred in both Alejandro Gonzelez Inarritu's "21 Grams" and Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River," both of which were major Oscar contenders, but Penn fared better than Thornton did two years earlier. "21 Grams" earned acting nominations for Naomi Watts and Benicio Del Toro, while "Mystic River" was nominated for Best Picture and won Penn his first Oscar for Best Actor.

MAKE YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Will Jessica Chastain by nominated for "The Help"?

Log your predictions in all top Emmy races. Compete against experts!
Make Your Predictions!

Jamie Foxx, 2004: He actually played the lead role in Michael Mann's thriller "Collateral," but at the time he lacked the star-power of his co-star Tom Cruise, who gave the showier performance as a psychotic hitman and got top billing. As a result, Foxx earned a Best Supporting Actor nomination for the film, clearing the way for him to win Best Actor for his role as singer Ray Charles in the biopic "Ray."

Leonardo DiCaprio, 2006: He adopted an African accent to play a smuggler in "Blood Diamond," but he also had the lead role in Martin Scorsese's gangster epic "The Departed." Because "The Departed" had a large ensemble cast (including Matt Damon and Jack Nicholson), he gambled on a supporting-actor campaign. He ended up with a Best Actor nod for "Blood Diamond" (which he lost to Forest Whitaker for "The Last King of Scotland"), but not only was he not nominated for "The Departed," neither were Damon or Nicholson. The film's only acting nominee was Mark Wahlberg; did category confusion get in the way?

Kate Winslet, 2008: Like DiCaprio, she tried to campaign one of her lead performances in the supporting category, but Oscar voters didn't take the bait. She aimed for a Best Actress nomination for the domestic drama "Revolutionary Road" and a Best Supporting Actress bid as an illiterate German on trial for war crimes in "The Reader." The strategy worked for a while; she won twice at the Golden Globes and received nominations for both at the SAG Awards (winning for "The Reader"). But at Oscar time the Academy rejected her performance in "Revolutionary Road" altogether and instead gave her a Best Actress nod for "The Reader," and after five previous nominations, she finally won.

Leonardo DiCaprio, 2010: Poor Leo. It happened again to the actor just last year, when he gave strong performances in Martin Scorsese's psychological thriller "Shutter Island" and Christopher Nolan's sci-fi action drama "Inception." But the earlier film was regarded mostly as a genre exercise by Scorsese, and despite its box office success its February release left it a distant memory by the time Academy voters got their ballots. And though "Inception" was nominated for Best Picture, the mind-bending film was considered more an achievement in writing and directing than acting. DiCaprio was snubbed for both films.

Stay on top of the Oscar races - Get free Gold Derby News Updates

http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/1986/oscarologists-sort-out-a-crowded-race-for-best-actor-nominations.html

Oscarologists sort out a crowded race for Best Actor nominations
Jean Dujardin, Woody Harrelson, Ralph Fiennes, Gary Oldman, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Michael Fassbender, George Clooney, Win Win, Rampart, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Rum Diary, The Artist, Shame, 50 50, Drive, Coriolanus, The Ides of March, The Descendants, Take Shelter, Moneyball, J. Edgar, A Dangerous Method, Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life, Michael Shannon, Ryan Gosling, Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Academy Awards, Film, Oscars, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Actor
By Daniel Montgomery
Oct 01 2011 | 12:47 pm
|

Best Actor is one of this year's most crowded Oscar races, so much so that just getting nominated may prove as difficult as winning, with upwards of a dozen viable candidates in the running. As reported earlier, three-time nominee Leonardo DiCaprio is the favorite to win for his work in "J. Edgar," which has yet to screen for audiences or the press. He's currently given field-leading 13/8 odds to win.

But Gold Derby's Inside Track measures more than just who will win. It also calculates the likelihood of being nominated, based on how many of our Oscarologists place him in their top-five lists of most probable contenders. By that measure, DiCaprio is still out front. All of Gold Derby's Editors, and the vast majority of Experts and Users expect DiCaprio to make the Best Actor shortlist, giving him overwhelming 1/10 odds of receiving his fourth Academy Award nomination.

Three other major stars currently populate the top five on the Inside Track: George Clooney for "The Descendants" (2/13), Brad Pitt for "Moneyball" (8/11), and Gary Oldman for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" (4/5). Also in the hunt, though, is a relative unknown: French actor Jean Dujardin, who earned raves for "The Artist" when it premiered earlier this year at the Cannes Film Festival, where he won the Best Actor prize. He's given 8/13 odds of being nominated in Oscar's equivalent race.

But several other actors are knocking on the door. Ryan Gosling has a pair of performances in the running. He has distant 33/1 odds of being nominated for "Drive," but Oscarologists give him strong 12/5 odds of making the lineup for "The Ides of March." Michael Fassbender also has a pair of films in contention. He gets 12/1 odds for the historical drama "A Dangerous Method," in which he plays psychologist Carl Jung. But he gets better odds (7/2) for his performance as a sex addict in "Shame."

Woody Harrelson, a previous Best Actor nominee for "The People vs. Larry Flynt" (1996) and a Best Supporting Actor nominee for "The Messenger" (2009), could contend again as a renegade cop in "Rampart," which was recently acquired for distribution by Millennium Entertainment, but he'll have to overcome steep 10/1 odds.

MAKE YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor?

Log your predictions in all top Oscar races. Compete against experts!
Make Your Predictions!

Other actors farther back in the race are Joseph Gordon-Levitt in "50/50" (16/1), Paul Giamatti in "Win Win" (16/1), Ralph Fiennes in "Coriolanus" (25/1), Johnny Depp in "The Rum Diary" (25/1), and Michael Shannon in "Take Shelter" (25/1), but the race is far from over. Expect momentum to shift as the season progresses and additional films are released to the public. You too can affect the race just by making predictions. Is the Inside Track on the right track? Or have we got it all wrong?

For the complete list of contenders, CLICK HERE. The current rankings are as follows:

GOLD DERBY INSIDE TRACK: RACETRACK ODDS / BEST ACTOR NOMINATION

1.) Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar" – 1/10
2.) George Clooney, "The Descendants" – 2/13
3.) Jean Dujardin, "The Artist" – 8/13
4.) Brad Pitt, "Moneyball" – 8/11
5.) Gary Oldman, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" – 4/5
6.) Ryan Gosling, "The Ides of March" – 12/5
7.) Michael Fassbender, "Shame" – 7/2
8.) Brad Pitt, "The Tree of Life" – 4/1
9.) Woody Harrelson, "Rampart" – 10/1
10.) Michael Fassbender, "A Dangerous Method" – 12/1

Don't miss updates on the Oscar races - Get free Gold Derby News Updates

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2011/10/oscar_futures_moneyball.html

10/7/11 at 2:00 PM
10Comments

Oscar Futures: Playing Horse and Moneyball

By Kyle Buchanan

Facebook
Twitter
ShareThis Counter
Email

Every week between now and January 24, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture UP: Moneyball. The movie continues to hang on nicely after having all of September virtually to itself in terms of press coverage, critical acclaim, and box office. At this point, it's got the beachhead it needed. DOWN: The Ides of March. Harvey Weinstein raved about it, but the movie isn't considered to be front-runner competition. Even George Clooney seemed skeptical of Harv's hosannas. "He's got a plan, doesn't he?" Clooney fretted to us. "He's trying to set me up somehow."
CURRENT PREDIX: The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; The Help; J. Edgar; Midnight in Paris; Moneyball; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; War Horse

Best Director UP: Steven Spielberg (War Horse). The full trailer makes the movie look like a can't-miss cross between E.T. and Saving Private Ryan, as unlikely as that sounds. DOWN: Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey). It's still super under the radar, but Jolie's Bosnian war drama has screened, though it hasn't seemed to move any Oscar prognostication needles yet.
CURRENT PREDIX: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris); Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo); Michael Hazanavicious (The Artist); Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Best Actor UP: Michael Fassbender (Shame). How hot has this rising star been at the New York Film Festival? "Women in lobby stomping feet, screaming after mtg Michael Fassbender just now," tweeted the Film Society, adding, "2 guys escorted out also." DOWN: Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar). Is the new poster actually trying to dampen our interest?
CURRENT PREDIX: George Clooney (The Descendants); Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar); Jean Dujardin (The Artist); Michael Fassbender (Shame); Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Best Actress UP: Charlize Theron (Young Adult). In this week's trailer battle, Theron's intriguing bad girl came out ahead. DOWN: Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn). Meanwhile, Michelle's Marilyn didn't benefit from a two-minute teaser. We'll know more when the movie screens this weekend.
CURRENT PREDIX: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs); Viola Davis (The Help); Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady); Charlize Theron (Young Adult); Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
Best Supporting Actor UP: Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris). This category is crying out for someone under 40, so why not the terrific Stoll, who's been working the awards circuit all week to promote his turn as Ernest Hemingway? DOWN: Nick Nolte (Warrior). If young bucks like Stoll or J. Edgar's Armie Hammer make a late charge for Oscar, Warrior's weak box office may make Nolte the most expendable.
CURRENT PREDIX: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn); Albert Brooks (Drive); Nick Nolte (Warrior); Christopher Plummer (Beginners); Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Best Supporting Actress UP: Octavia Spencer (The Help). Proving she's no one-hit wonder, Spencer just booked a role in the directorial debut of Oscar winner Diablo Cody. DOWN: Emily Watson (War Horse). Some have speculated that Watson will deliver strong stuff in this movie, but in the new trailer, she's eclipsed by running horses and crying little girls.
CURRENT PREDIX: Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); Jessica Chastain (The Help); Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids); Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus); Octavia Spencer (The Help)

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/shame-oscars-rating-michael-fassbender-250830

Nudity, Three-Ways, Hints of Incest: A Studio's Plan to Sell 'Shame' to Oscar
12:06 PM PDT 10/20/2011 by Pamela McClintock

Abbot Genser/Fox Searchlight Pictures
Fox Searchlight's controversial and shocking film, directed by Steve McQueen, reveals its battle to de-stigmatize the NC-17 rating.

This article first appeared in the Oct. 28 issue of The Hollywood Reporter.
our editor recommends
The Dirty Dozen: Films that Narrowly Avoided an NC-17
Michael Fassbender, Carey Mulligan Seduce in 'Shame' International Trailer (Video)
Telluride 2011: Sex and Psychoanalysis in 'Shame' and 'A Dangerous Method'
'Shame' First Look: Teaser Poster for Fox Searchlight's Controversial Film (Exclusive)
Who Will Take a Chance on Michael Fassbender's Sex-Drenched, Gruesome 'Shame'? (Analysis)

When Nancy Utley emerged from a screening of Shame at the recent Telluride Film Festival, she didn't stop shaking for 10 minutes. The president of Fox Searchlight was that affected by British director Steve McQueen's raw portrayal of a sex addict, played by Michael Fassbender.

PHOTOS: The Dirty Dozen: Films That Narrowly Avoided an NC-17

"I thought that we have to be a part of this and make sure this movie gets seen," recalls Utley.

Steve Gilula, Searchlight's other president, saw Shame soon after and agreed. Several days later, Searchlight announced it was acquiring U.S. rights to the movie, sending shock waves through the film industry.

PHOTOS: Telluride Film Festival: 12 Films to Know

Shame is guaranteed to receive an NC-17 rating for its graphic sexual content when it is submitted to the Classification and Rating Administration. And while Searchlight might have one of the best records in the industry in terms of marketing expertise and box-office standing -- last year, the company turned Black Swan into an unlikely commercial hit and awards winner -- it will have to overcome the incredible stigma that still surrounds the NC-17 rating as it sells the film to awards voters and moviegoers.

Set in New York City, Shame chronicles the harrowing desperation of a sex addict. When his sister, played by Carey Mulligan, moves in with him, emotions run even higher because she has sex problems of her own. The movie has frontal nudity, group sex and gay sex, not to mention plenty of straight sex. There are also hints of previous incest between the siblings and a grisly suicide attempt.

PHOTOS: Hollywood's New Leading Ladies

Hollywood is in agreement that Shame, also starring James Badge Dale, represents the most important moment in years for the ghettoized NC-17 rating. Translated, the rating means "patently adult. No children allowed," according to the Motion Picture Association of America, which runs the ratings program with the National Association of Theatre Owners. Technically speaking, the rating means no children under 17 allowed, period.

Shame is destined to push the boundaries of what's acceptable in the eyes of American moviegoers, as well as the willingness of theater owners to carry such fare and advertisers to carry promos for the movie.

"I think NC-17 is a badge of honor, not a scarlet letter. We believe it is time for the rating to become usable in a serious manner," says Gilula. "The sheer talent of the actors and the vision of the filmmaker are extraordinary. It's not a film that everyone will take easily, but it certainly breaks through the clutter and is distinctive and original. It's a game changer."

VIDEO: Michael Fassbender, Carey Mulligan Seduce in 'Shame' Trailer

Distributors are notoriously closemouthed when it comes to revealing their marketing strategies, but Gilula and Utley were willing to disclose certain aspects of their campaign for Shame with THR.

The early push for Shame will rely heavily on glowing reviews and the publicity surrounding its successful festival tour -- including a win at Venice for best actor and buzz-filled stops at San Sebastian, Telluride, Toronto, New York and, most recently, the London Film Festival.

"We don't need a mass-media tool to get the word out on the film, at least not initially," says Utley.

FILM REVIEW: Shame

And because Shame will expand slowly after opening in only a few theaters on Dec. 2, most likely in New York and Los Angeles, Searchlight won't have to rely on major newspaper ad buys outside of those cities.

Advertising an NC-17 title on television can be another hurdle, depending on the policy of a particular station. Even if the content of an ad is appropriate for a range of audiences, a station probably won't play it until later in the evening.

In terms of trailers, Searchlight plans to play a Shame trailer rated for all audiences before R-rated films. U.K.-based distributor Momentum released the international trailer for the film Oct. 14, and it highlights Shame's more erotic moments.

STORY: Sex Sells at Toronto Film Festival

Searchlight is also banking on awards-season attention to boost Shame's standing. The company is planning an ambitious campaign for best picture, director, actor, supporting actress, cinematography and original screenplay. But selling the film to Academy, Golden Globe and guild voters could prove tricky.

One veteran awards consultant says keeping older voters in their seats will be a challenge.

"Shame is thought-provoking and incredibly well-acted. It's also littered with the rawest sex you've ever seen in a non-pornographic movie," says the consultant. "But the sex isn't gratuitous and is designed to show the disintegration of the character."

As Focus Features CEO James Schamus puts it: "It gets really bad, and then it starts all over again. I loved it, and a good movie should be able to have these images."

That's exactly the sort of discussion on which Gilula and Utley are counting.

"I know the race is uncertain right now, and a lot of the films haven't been seen, but we certainly think the movie and its performances deserve attention," says Utley. "We hope we build up enough noise about the movie so that people feel it's part of their job to watch it."

Adds Gilula: "I think Shame's profile will pique people's curiosity. I'm optimistic this will be a significant film and change the attitude of people toward this kind of subject matter."

When they shopped Shame to U.S. buyers, producers Iain Canning and Emile Sherman made it clear that they wouldn't allow McQueen's film to be edited to secure an R rating in the U.S. Together, the men run the London- and Sydney-based See-Saw Films, which produced last year's Oscar-winning The King's Speech. They and Speech director Tom Hooper were unhappy when Harvey Weinstein, who was distributing the film in the U.S., insisted on editing out several uses of the F-word after the R-rated film won the Oscar for best picture in order to secure a PG-13 rating. Weinstein hoped to lure families, a ploy that failed to attract significant extra box-office dollars.

Sherman and Canning, who partnered with the U.K.'s Film4 to finance Shame, knew from the start that McQueen's second feature -- his first was the prison drama Hunger, which also starred Fassbender -- would venture into rather adult territory.

Before he began filming, McQueen had the cast watch Bernardo Bertolucci's sexually charged Last Tango in Paris, the famous X-rated film starring Marlon Brando and French actress Maria Schneider. (A little-known fact: McQueen was so swept up by Last Tango that he named Fassbender's character Brandon, a variation on Brando.)

Released in January 1973, Last Tango belongs to a tiny class of titles released before the X rating -- the forerunner of today's NC-17 -- was co-opted by the porn industry.

Last Tango came in the wake of Midnight Cowboy, which opened in May 1969, only six months after then-MPAA president Jack Valenti established the current ratings system. Cowboy remains the only X-rated or NC-17 movie to score at the Oscars, walking away with trophies for best picture, director and adapted screenplay.

The X rating was intended to signal adult content, but the MPAA didn't copyright the rating -- a fact Valenti would come to regret as pornographic films began using the X, then triple X, as a come-on. With the rating tarnished, Hollywood studios and the larger independent distributors began avoiding it at all costs. And if a film did receive an X for sex or violence, distributors made whatever edits were needed to get an R out of fear that theater owners and the public would steer clear of their product.

In 1990, Valenti moved to establish a new adults-only rating by retiring the X and replacing it with NC-17. Two weeks later, Universal's Henry & June opened in theaters with the new classification. But despite great reviews and an eventual Oscar nomination for best cinematography, the film topped out at $11.6 million domestically as the stigma associated with the X rating quickly transferred to NC-17.

Since then, nearly all the big studios have stayed away from NC-17. Just as before, they force filmmakers to make cuts to ensure an R. The one exception was Showgirls, which MGM released in 1995. Although Showgirls is the top-grossing NC-17 rated film of all time at the domestic box office, it earned only $20.4 million.

However, some of the studio specialty divisions have sporadically tried to release an NC-17 film. Searchlight tried it with Bertolucci's The Dreamers, Sony Pictures Classics with Pedro Almodovar's Bad Education and Focus more recently with Ang Lee's 2007 Chinese-language film Lust, Caution. All three received the restrictive rating for their sexual content. Bad Education fared the best, grossing $5.2 million domestically, while Dreamers turned up an even-softer $2.5 million.

Utley says the Internet, still in its infancy when Dreamers was released in the U.S. in February 2004, should make a difference this time. "It will be pretty easy for us to create noise about Shame by releasing materials online," she says. "The communities that would support this type of movie are much more organized than when we released Dreamers."

Getting attention is one thing; getting exhibitors to play an NC-17 title is another. When Lust, Caution was released in 2007, AMC Entertainment and Regal Entertainment both booked it, but Cinemark -- the third-largest circuit in the U.S. behind AMC and Regal -- refused to play it in any of its theaters.

"I didn't feel bold and daring about it, but we did face a very large marketing headwind," recalls Schamus, who is Lee's longtime collaborator and wrote the screenplay for Lust, Caution.

"Lust, Caution was a Chinese-language movie, so it wasn't really for American audiences, but it was a massive hit in Asia," he adds. "To a large extent, the NC-17 rating is untested. It would be nice if the rating meant, 'Hey, there's a certain amount of sexual material, but it's a movie, so go see it if you want.' "

The fact remains that sex -- or at least, a movie with overt sexuality -- plays better abroad than in the U.S. Lust, Caution earned $62.5 million internationally, including $17.1 million in China and $13.1 million in South Korea. It also did relatively well in Europe.

"In the U.K., we don't have the same issues as in the U.S.," says Xavier Marchand, managing director at Momentum, which has a first-look deal with See-Saw and boarded Shame early on.

"Shame will get an 18 rating in the U.K. [no one under 18 allowed], but there's no stigma attached," he adds, noting that Momentum is planning a major BAFTA push. "I'm not sure why Americans are like this. There's nothing mysterious about sex. I think it's great Searchlight is taking on the challenge. From what I hear, certain cinemas won't play a movie in the U.S. because of its sexual nature."

Not true, though, says NATO president John Fithian.

"The myth that we won't play them is wrong. We've surveyed 100 of our leading members, and 97 percent say they will play an NC-17 film if the movie has commercial appeal," he says. "The second myth is that you can't advertise in newspapers. Again, that's not true on a widespread basis, though I think one newspaper in Utah doesn't."

Gilula backs up Fithian, saying Searchlight was able to book all the theaters it needed for Dreamers.

And Fithian in turn applauds Searchlight's acquisition of a title the distributor knows will get an NC-17 rating.

"For the vitality of the ratings system, we want movies to be released as an NC-17," he says. "The other option, which happens all the time, is that companies trim and try to squeeze their film into the R category."

Last year, Weinstein -- in another of his ratings battles --fought the NC-17 rating bestowed on awards contender Blue Valentine for a scene depicting oral sex between Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams' characters. Weinstein won, in this case without having to make cuts.

Edits or not, there's no going down the same road for Searchlight. "We accepted the fact we would release Shame as is. The truth is, NC-17 is a legitimate rating that tells people it's not a movie for kids under 18. We're fine with that," says Gilula. "The subject matter of Shame is sexual addiction, and it can only be told in this way."

Adds Fox Filmed Entertainment chairman and CEO Jim Gianopulos: "This is a brilliant work by a gifted director with extraordinary and brave acting performances. The rating is both appropriate and necessary given the content."

NC-17 TOP 10 DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE

Showgirls (1995) $20.4 million
Henry & June (1990) $11.6 million
The Cook, The Thief, His Wife her Lover (1990) $7.7 million
Bad Education (2004) $5.2 million
Lust, Caution (2007) $4.6 million
Tie Me Up! Tie Me Down! (1990) $4.1 million
The Dreamers (2004) $2.5 million
Crash (1997) $2.1 million
Bad Lieutenant (1992) $2 million
Wide Sargasso Sea (1993) $1.6 million

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-can-shame-crack-255094

OCT
30
1 day
3:38 PM PDT 10/30/2011 by Scott Feinberg

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, TBA, teaser)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, TBA, trailer)
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
J. Edgar (Warner Brothers, 11/11, R, trailer)
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Shame (Fox Searchlight, 12/2, NC-17, trailer) ▲
Major Threats
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, TBA, trailer)
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer) ▲
The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company, 12/21, TBA, teaser)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer) ▲
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer) ▲
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, TBA, trailer)
Young Adult (Paramount, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, PG-13, trailer)
My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer)
Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/16, R, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, TBA, TBA)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Steve McQueen (Shame) ▲
George Clooney (The Ides of March) ▼
Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady)
Possibilities
Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin) ▲
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Jonathan Levine (50/50) ▲
Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2) ▲

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Major Threats
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) ▲
Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)
Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Possibilities
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
Rhys Ifans (Anonymous)
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method) ▼

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Major Threats
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Michelle Yeoh (The Lady) ▲
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Possibilities
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day)
Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
Vera Farmiga (Higher Ground)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Major Threats
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Christoph Waltz (Carnage) NEW
John C. Reilly (Carnage) NEW
Possibilities
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
George Clooney (The Ides of March) ▼
Jeffrey Wright (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Judy Greer (The Descendants) ▲
Emily Watson (War Horse)
Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) ▲
Possibilities
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Jodie Foster (Carnage) NEW
Kate Winslet (Carnage) NEW
Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)
Hossein Amini (Drive) ▲
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Possibilities
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo)
James Ellroy, Oren Moverman (Rampart)
John Logan (Coriolanus)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Abi Morgan, Steve McQueen (Shame) ▲
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Major Threats
Will Reiser (50/50) ▲
Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady)
Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango)
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) ▼
Possibilities
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Adrian Hodges (My Week with Marilyn)
J.J. Abrams (Super
Dee Rees (Pariah)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, TBA, trailer)
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, TBA, TBA)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Into the Abyss (Sundance Selects, 11/11, TBA, TBA) ▲
Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Deluxe, TBA, trailer) ▲
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
Page One: Inside the New York Times (Magnolia, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, TBA, trailer)
Corman's World: Exploits of a Hollywood Rebel (Anchor Bay Films, 10/16, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer)
The Rescuers (Menemsha Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, 9/9, TBA, trailer)
Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/20, R, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Whale (Paladin, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Better This World
Bombay Beach
The Carrier
Footnote

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
A Separation (Iran)
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)
Le Havre (Finland)
A Simple Life (Hong Kong)
In Darkness (Poland)
Major Threats
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Declaration of War (France)
Footnote (Israel)
Pina (Germany)
Terra Firma (Italy)
Happy, Happy (Norway)
Sonny Boy (Netherlands)
Possibilities
The Flowers of War (China)
Black Bread (Spain)
Postcard (Japan)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)
The Turin Horse (Hungary)
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey)
Montevideo: Taste of a Dream (Serbia)
Morgen (Romania)

http://www.indiewire.com/article/2012_oscar_predictions/#

2012 Oscar Predictions
by Peter Knegt (October 31, 2011)
2012 Oscar Predictions
Image courtesy of AMPAS.

indieWIRE will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 84th Academy Award nominations between now and late January, when the nominations are announced. Each week, the update will be supplemented by a weekly awards-related column, which will often work to provide context for the list provided below.

At this point, it looks like a pretty impressive group of folks could be making the rounds this season. Meryl Streep, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Ryan Gosling, Michelle Williams, Tilda Swinton, Keira Knightley, Leonardo diCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Matt Damon, Sandra Bullock and Viggo Mortensen are all potentially in the mix for the acting races, while a who’s who of name directors have films speculated to be in contention: Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, David Fincher, Stephen Daldry, Clint Eastwood, Woody Allen, Terrence Malick and Alexander Payne.

The predictions below currently feature a variety of the more discussed Oscar categories and will be expanded to feature the rest as the weeks go on.

Best Picture*

Locks:
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants

Seem Very Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. War Horse
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Reasonable Possibilities:
5. The Help
6. Moneyball
7. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
8. Midnight in Paris
9. J. Edgar
10. Young Adult
11. We Bought a Zoo
12. The Tree of Life

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
13. The Ides of March
14. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
15. Hugo
16. The Adventures of Tin Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
17. Shame
18. Martha Marcy May Marlene
19. Drive
20. In The Land of Blood and Honey

*-Note that anywhere from 5-10 films can now be nominated in this category. indieWIRE is currently predicting 7.


Best Director

Locks:
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Seem Very Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
4. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Reasonable Possibilities:
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
6. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
7. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
8. Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
9. Bennett Miller, Moneyball
10. George Clooney, The Ides of March

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
11. David Fincher, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
12. Jason Reitman, Young Adult
13. Steven Spielberg, The Adventures of Tin Tin
14. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
15. Angelina Jolie, In The Land of Blood and Honey

Best Actor

Locks:
1. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
2. George Clooney, The Descendants

Seems Very Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. Leonardo diCaprio, J. Edgar

Reasonable Possibilities:
4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
5. Michael Fassbender, Shame
6. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Woody Harrelson, Rampart
8. Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
11. Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
12. Christoph Waltz, Carnage
13. Tom Hardy, Warrior

Unknown Young Actors With Lead Roles In The Year’s Two Biggest Oscar Question Marks (Though Will They Actually Campaign Lead?):
14. Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
15. Jeremy Irvine, War Horse

Best Actress

Locks:
1. Viola Davis, The Help
2. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

No One’s Seen Yet, But Who Are We Kidding:
3. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Reasonable Possibilities:
4. Glenn Close. Albert Nobbs
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
6. Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
7. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
8. Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
10. Michelle Yeoh, The Lady
11. Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
12. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
13. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
14. Kristin Scott Thomas, Sarah’s Key
15. Zana Marjanović, In The Land of Blood and Honey

Best Supporting Actor

Locks:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

All Reasonable Possibilities In a Really Tough Category To Predict Right Now:
3. Albert Brooks, Drive
4. Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
6. Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
7. Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
8. Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
9. Nick Nolte, Warrior
10. Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
11. Ezra Miller, We Need To Talk About Kevin
12. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
13. Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
14. Christoph Waltz, Carnage
15. David Thewlis, The Lady


Best Supporting Actress

Locks
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Reasonable Possibilities From What We’ve Seen:
3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
4. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Haven’t Seen:
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Reasonable Possibilities From The Oeuvre of Jessica Chastain:
6. Jessica Chastain, The Help
7. Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
8. Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Judi Dench, J. Edgar
10. Carey Mulligan, Shame
11. Jodie Foster, Carnage
12. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
13. Evan Rachel Wood, The Ides of March
14. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
15. Emily Watson, War Horse

Best Original Screenplay

Locks:
1. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
2. Michel Hazanvicius, The Artist

Recent Winners Looking Good To Strike Again (But We Haven’t Seen Their Films Yet)
3. Dustin Lance Black, J. Edgar
4. Diablo Cody, Young Adult

Reasonable Possibilities:
5. Steve McQueen & Abi Morgan, Shame
6. Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
7. Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
8. Drake Doremus & Ben York Jones, Like Crazy

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Will Reiser, 50/50
10. John Logan, Rango
11. Abi Morgan, The Iron Lady
12. Mike Mills, Beginners
13. Thomas McCarthy & Joe Tibani, Win Win
14. Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter
15. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Best Adapted Screenplay

Locks:
1. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash, The Descendants

Seem Very Likely, But No One’s Seen:
2. Eric Roth, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Richard Curtis & Lee Hall, War Horse

Reasonable Possibilities:
4. Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker, Tailor Soldier Spy
5. Aaron Sorkin & Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
6. George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
7. Cameron Crowe & Aline Brosh McKenna, We Bought a Zoo
8. Steven Zaillian, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Darker Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Tate Taylor, The Help
10. Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat & Edgar Wright, The Adventures of Tintin
11. Christopher Hampton, A Dangerous Method
12. Rory Kinnear & Lynne Ramsay, We Need To Talk About Kevin
13. Roman Polanski & Yasmina Reza, Carnage
14. Adrian Hodges, My Week With Marilyn
15. John Logan, Hugo

Best Animated Feature*
1. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn**
2. Rango
3. Arthur Christmas
4. Happy Feet 2
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Puss in Boots
7. Cars
8. Rio
9. Winnie the Pooh
10. Gnomeo & Juliet

*-Category could feature 3-5 nominees depending on amount of animated features that screen theatrically. indieWIRE is currently predicting 5.
**-“The Adventures of Tintin” may or may not be eligible due to being a motion capture animated film. If it is eligible, expect it to win.

Best Foreign Language Film*
1. Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)
2. War Is Declared (France)
3. A Separation (Iran)
4. In Darkness (Poland)
5. Miss Bala (Mexico)
6. Le Havre (Finland)
7. Footnote (Israel)
8. Happy Happy (Norway)
9. Pina (Germany)
10. War of Flowers (China)

*-Notoriously difficult to predict category that currently only features announced official submissions. Predictions will be updated as new submissions are announced.

Best Documentary Feature*
1. Senna
2. Project Nim
3. Hell and Back Again
4. The Interrupters
5. Buck
6. Page One: A Year Inside The New York Times
7. Into The Abyss
8. Tabloid
9. Bill Cunningham New York
10. We Were Here

*-Also a notoriously difficult to predict category, and one with dozens of viable contenders not listed here.

Best Cinematography
1. The Artist
2. The Tree of Life
3. War Horse
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5. J. Edgar
6. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
7. Hugo
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II
10. Moneyball

Best Film Editing
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
4. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. J. Edgar
7. The Descendants
8. Moneyball
9. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
10. The Tree of Life

Best Art Direction
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5. J. Edgar
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. My Week With Marilyn
8. Jane Eyre
9. The Help
10. Anonymous

Best Costume Design
1. The Artist
2. Jane Eyre
3. W.E.
4. Hugo
5. War Horse
6. The Help
7. J. Edgar
8. My Week With Marilyn
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10. Midnight in Paris

Best Original Score
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Ides of March
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
6. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
7. The Help
8. Moneyball
9. Jane Eyre
10. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Check out indieWIRE‘s latest awards-related column here.

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/governors-awards-night-honorary-winners-and-oscar-contenders-32735

Governors Awards: A Night for Honorary Winners, and Oscar Contenders
Published: November 12, 2011 @ 11:12 am

By Steve Pond

The spotlight at Saturday night's Governors Awards will be on James Earl Jones, Oprah Winfrey and makeup artist Dick Smith, all of whom will be presented with honorary Academy Awards (in Winfrey's case, the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award).

But another agenda will be in play inside the Grand Ballroom at Hollywood & Highland, where the black-tie reception, dinner and awards ceremony will be full of folks who hope to win competitve Academy Awards next February.

The Governors Awards was launched two years ago, in part to shorten the running time of the Academy Awards and to give Honorary Oscar winners a fuller, longer and less formal presentation than they'd receive on the big show.

And that first year, AMPAS found out that the Governors Awards was a lot of fun – a lower-key and collegial event at which Quentin Tarantino could ramble on about Roger Corman and onstage tributes could be mixed with less formal toasts.

But Hollywood learned something about the Governors Awards that night, too: When you bring together 500 influential Academy members and a handful of legends, you have a very good campaign opportunity.

So Jeff Bridges, Tom Hanks, Marisa Tomei, Vera Farmiga, Warren Beatty and Annette Bening showed up for the 2009 awards, in which honors went to Corman, Lauren Bacall, Gordon Willis and John Calley.

And then the floodgates opened in 2010, when the governors voted honors to Eli Wallach, Francis Ford Coppola, Kevin Brownlow and the absent Jean-Luc Godard. Representatives showed up from nearly every contending film: Tom Hooper from "The King's Speech," Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield and Armie Hammer from "The Social Network," Darren Aronofsky and Natalie Portman from "Black Swan," Melissa Leo from "The Fighter," Lee Unkrich from "Toy Story 3," Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu from "Biutiful," Lisa Cholodenko from "The Kids Are All Right" ….

The third Governors Awards will include a big contingent from the top contender "The Artist," and a slew of acting contenders that is expected to include "Shame" star Michael Fassbender, who otherwise has shown a notable reluctance to do much that might be construed as campaigning.

They'll be mingling with those who've come to honor Jones, Winfrey and Smith for their careers, in an untelevised event that, said Warren Beatty at the first Governors Awards, is "so much better than … worrying if 35.5 million people are watching us, or only 29.2 million."

At the end of the evening that same night, producer and Academy official Kathleen Kennedy summed up the Governors Awards.

“It captured that intimate, elusive feeling that everybody wants the Oscar show to have,” Kennedy said. “I think this will become the fun event that everybody wants to go to.”

It has done exactly that -- especially if that everybody includes Oscar contenders.

TheWrap will have full coverage of the Governors Awards after the event on Saturday.

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/brett-ratner-rearview-mirror-academy-gives-awards-oprah-winfrey-james-earl-jones-32738

With Ratner in Its Rearview Mirror, Academy Honors Oprah, James Earl Jones
Published: November 13, 2011 @ 1:20 am

By Steve Pond

It was a night devoted to James Earl Jones, Dick Smith and Oprah Winfrey, but the Academy couldn't avoid at least one reference to Brett Ratner at the beginning of Saturday's Governors Awards.

"Good evening," said the first speaker to take the stage of the Grand Ballroom at Hollywood & Highland. "I'm Tom Sherak, president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences."

Governors AwardsA pause. "How was your week?"

The audience laughed, knowing that Sherak's week had included Ratner's resignation, host Eddie Murphy's subsequent departure and the quick hirings of producer Brian Grazer and host Billy Crystal.

But after a chuckle at Sherak's joke – which he'd also used the previous night, at an Academy screening of "The Great White Hope" – the 600 assembled Academy members and guests moved on, relieved by the alacrity with which AMPAS had regained its footing and ready to celebrate the three latest recipients of the Academy's honorary awards.

Also read: The Ratner Mess: It's the End of an Oscar Era, But at What Cost?

This was the third year the Academy handed out the awards in a separate ceremony, rather than putting them in the Oscar show. The move enabled the AMPAS board of governors to vote more awards: four in 2009 and 2010 and three this year, as opposed to a maximum of two when the honorary awards were part of the main show.

It also allows for longer, more expansive tributes, with more speeches and longer film clips.

The ceremony differed from the two that preceded it in a few ways -- and not just the fact that Sherak came onstage dressed as Darth Vader in honor of Jones, or that a bevy of stormtroopers swept the ballroom before his entrance.

Last year and the year before, the Academy partitioned off one-third of the ballroom, and used that smaller portion for an hour of cocktails before the main room was opened for dinner and the awards.This year, though, they filled the entire ballroom with tables, forcing cocktail-hour mingling to take place awkwardly in the aisles rather than in a dedicated, open setting.

And since participants in that mingling included actors Glenn Close, Gary Oldman, Michael Fassbender, Woody Harrelson, Viola Davis, Ellen Barkin, Patton Oswalt, Tilda Swinton, Evan Rachel Wood, Shailene Woodley and Jean Dujardin, and directors Steve McQueen, Michel Hazanavicius, Julie Taymor, Drake Doremus and Sean Durkin, the bottleneck-heavy pre-show setup put a crimp in the meeting and greeting that could have been done by some serious Oscar contenders.

Oldman, in the running for his first-ever Oscar nomination for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy," was typical of the contenders who appeared at the event: casual, pleased to be included but more interested in chatting with Fassbender and McQueen than in aggressively working the room.

"I've been getting lots of invitations lately," he said agreeably. "I seem to be in this orbit now."

Though the ceremony took up more space, the crowd wasn't appreciably bigger than the 550 who attended in 2009 and 2010.

For the third consecutive year, though, the Governors Awards was a warm, collegial and emotional evening, with the tribute to the least-famous winner – makeup artist Smith – in particular showing why it's a good idea to present the Governors Awards on their own show rather than trying to fit them into the already-long Oscar telecast.

With a deft film package by Jon Bloom (who put together all four of the evening's tribute films) and speeches from Linda Blair, J.J. Abrams and Rick Baker, the presentation made a persuasive case for Smith's award, and painted the 89-year-old makeup artist as a pioneer in the field who also happened to be kind to fans and was always willing to educate and share his secrets with the next generation of artists in his field.

Abrams' recollections were particularly entertaining. As a youngster, he said, he wrote Smith a fan letter in which he described his own filmmaking experiments, and asked about how to achieve certain techniques. In return, he said, Smith sent a box and a note that read, "Here's an old but clean tongue from 'The Exorcist,'" with instructions on how to make the tongue bleed.

Rick Baker and Dick SmithThe actual presentation was made by seven-time winner Baker (right, with his back to the camera, facing Smith), who called Smith "my idol, my mentor and my friend for over 43 years."

Overcome by emotion after receiving a standing ovation, Smith said, "This has been an incredible joy, one of the greatest I've ever had in my whole life … To have so much kindness given to me all in one huge piece is too much."

Smith's segment was in some ways the highlight of the Governors Awards – though James Earl Jones' presentation was a transatlantic treat, and Oprah Winfrey received the most standing ovations as she was awarded the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award.

The honors kicked off with Jones' presentation, which went from Mary J. Blige's rendition of "Can You Feel the Love Tonight?" (from "The Lion King," to which Jones lent his voice), to a speech in which Alec Baldwin used the words apotheosis and incalculablein the same sentence (you couldn't get away with that on the big Oscar show), to a film package highlighting Jones' career, to another speech from Glenn Close.

But because he is currently starring in a London stage production of "Driving Miss Daisy," Jones couldn't attend the ceremony. Instead, he received his Honorary Oscar after the Saturday matinee performance of the show, with co-star Vanessa Redgrave telling the audience about the honor and then bringing out a surprise guest, Ben Kingsley, who gave Jones the Oscar that had been carried to London by former Academy president Sid Ganis.

"If an actor's nightmare is being onstage buck naked and not knowing his lines, what the heck do you call this?" said Jones, clearly surprised to find the Oscar-toting Kingsley onstage.

Jones recounted his improbable introduction to movies, which terrified him the first time he saw them. "I said, 'Make 'em stop! Somebody, make 'em stop doing that!'" he said. "Well, I couldn’t make 'em stop, so eventually I joined 'em."

After admitting that he'd appeared in some of the worst movies ever made ("but I will not name them – you'll have to Google me"), he summed up his feelings with a word he said he'd picked up in England: "I stand before you deeply honored, mighty grateful and just plain gobsmacked."

The final award of the night was the Hersholt, with Oprah lauded by everybody from John Travolta and Maria Shriver to a young Harlem student, Ayanna Hall, who received a scholarship to boarding school from the Oprah Winfrey Foundation.

Oprah WinfreyAt first, though, the tribute seemed more about Winfrey's role in "The Color Purple" and her party-animal prowess than her humanitarian work. Producer Larry Gordon told a long story about meeting and sitting next to her at an event in Santa Barbara, where he socked back a double-digit number of shots and Oprah kept pace with him.

Finally, he said, he toasted his new drinking buddy with what he figured was a heartfelt compliment: "Oprah, you're a f#%@#&! moose!" As Gordon recounted the story, Winfrey laughed, though her long-time partner Stedman looked unamused.

John Travolta then added his own stories about drinking shots and partying with Oprah, before Maria Shriver and then Hall turned the focus to the showbiz icon's humanitarian work.

Hall in particular reduced Winfrey to tears before the Hersholt recipient took the stage to deliver what she said were unprepared remarks. And while her speech certainly rambled and stretched the show past the two-and-a-half-hour mark (still the shortest of the three Governors Awards), it was also undeniably heartfelt.

"It's unimaginable that I would be standing before you, voted by the Board of Governors," she said, before breaking down. "And so when I say thank you, the thank you comes from a place even deeper than I know. It's not just for me, it's for everybody who helped make me possible."

The ceremony also included a film montage of previous Honorary Oscar winners, and a touching toast to former Oscar-show producers Laura Ziskin and Gil Cates, both of whom died recently.

(Photos by AMPAS)